Ah, crypto. The playground of the bulls and bears.
Which side do you fall on?
Since the start of 2022, bears have dominated the conversation. They promise bitcoin’s price will drop to $30,000 or lower. 2018 all over again. Bear flag target is $21,000. Capitulation imminent. At least two more years before we go back to a new all-time high.
Good morning! You’re too bearish. Enjoy your day!
— Mark Helfman (@mkhelfman) December 11, 2021
What about the bulls?
I can’t hear them over all the crickets chirping. The bullish fractals have disappeared. Bear market, recession, US stocks, sovereign debt, there’s no way price goes up for a long, long time.
Somebody has to fill the void. Why not me?
Do you want to know my most bullish scenario for bitcoin (and by extension, the whole crypto market)?
Up a little, down a little, forever.
Something like this:
No FOMO, supercycle, or moonshots. Just aggressive, consistent growth that outpaces every other investment that people like you and I can access.
Dream or nightmare?
Yes, that’s my dream.
You get perfect conditions for growth.
Plenty of opportunities for people to enter and exit, enough upward price movement to give new buyers confidence in the market, not enough “zoom!” to make people get too greedy, enough boredom that scammers go back to other things, and enough excitement to motivate investors to learn about what they’re buying.
Most importantly, enough liquidity and casual interest that builders and innovators have an audience for their creations.
For most people, that’s a nightmare. Six months before the price doubles? Multiple drops of +20% along the way?
Nobody wants to wait six months for their Lambo.
How long could that trend continue before traders decide it’s no longer a bear flag? And anyway, how do you get a good entry if the price doesn’t break out of the trading pattern?
While that outcome doesn’t bring a lot of volatility, it’s a much easier ride than massive bull and bear markets. Easier on the mind, body, and portfolio.
Would you be upset if the price goes to *only* $80,000 and the value of your investment *only* doubles in one year? And then another 2x next year? And another 2x the year after?
What about 50% each year? Would you be sad about a 600% return on investment over five years?
That’s probably more sustainable than whatever your data model predicts.
While that’d be nice, I’m not betting on it. This market has always moved in extremes. Big moves up and big moves down.
Do you see any reason that should change now?
Originally published in Cryptowriter.