Bitcoin has plenty of data models to predict its price.
Those models are great, but they all contradict each other.
I know a brilliant person working on a better model, and I’m sure it’ll be amazing once it’s done. Until then, I propose a new model for bitcoin’s price: the “Up and to the Right (U2R)” model.
This model predicts bitcoin’s price will continue to go up and to the right on a logarithmic price chart. Because this model takes a similar approach as other models, I consider it a valid way to understand whether bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued at any given moment.
About the U2R model
This model projects bitcoin’s price over the middle line of TradingView’s “BTC Log Curve Zones Light” indicator on the Brave New Coin trading chart. Readings lag price by one day.
Props to TradingView and Mabonyi for creating this. They deserve all the credit.
Tap this button to see the live U2R chart.
How to use the U2R model
Look at the black line on whatever date you want, then assume bitcoin’s price will be at, above, or below that black line on that day.
Whenever bitcoin’s price moves higher or lower than the black line, expect it will eventually revert to the black line. Any price within a shaded region represents a normal variance (whatever that means).
How to calculate the U2R model
I don’t know, ask Mabonyi.
How do you use the U2R model?
Use it as you’d use any other data model. When it tells you something you like, believe it. When it tells you something you don’t like, don’t believe it.
Mark, you’re kidding, right?
No. I’m dead serious. This is a model for predicting bitcoin’s price. How is it any less valid than any other model?
It’s a black line on a price chart. Bitcoin’s price has oscillated around that black line for its entire history. That has to count for something.
Does that mean you should make any decisions based on U2R?
No.
Do I make decisions based on U2R?
No.
Should anybody make decisions based on U2R?
No.
Mark, why are you giving us models that don’t predict price or help us make decisions?
I’m just trying to fit in with the other analysts.
Before you dismiss U2R, recognize it’s held up well for 13 years. With data models breaking left and right, maybe U2R is the data model that finally works?
Please share!