With bitcoin’s price breaking above $30,000, the cryptosphere seems locked in a “bull or bear market” conflict.
Bitcoin’s price keeps going up but it feels like a bear market.
Leading indicators and social media tell you the world’s about to fall off a cliff but your friends think everything’s OK.
Bearish analysts turned into bulls but nothing substantively has changed except the price.
YouTube tells you crypto’s about to explode but Ethereum’s still down against bitcoin and your altcoins haven’t gone up yet.
We’re in the disbelief stage of the Wall Street cheat sheet.
Does that mean we’re in a bull market?
That’s up to you. You get to decide.
All the same to me
Bitcoin crashes 30 to 50% regularly during bull markets and pumps 100 to 300% regularly during bear markets.
Its price goes above and below the so-called “bull market support band” all the time, as you can see on this chart (the ribbon is the bull market support band).
Whether you decide it’s a bull market or a bear market, does that necessarily mean anything for your decisions?
If bitcoin’s price stays above $15,600, we’ve been in a bull market for almost a year.
Fortunately, it will take a long time—possibly years—before we will know whether we are in a bull market or not.
Take advantage of opportunities as they come so you can squeeze the most juice out of the market. This is a long-term, upward-trending asset class with massive tailwinds and plenty of room to grow. Don’t fight it!
Relief rally, bull trap, echo bubble
Mark, a recession’s coming, the World Bank said global GDP will contract, mortgage rates are crazy, nobody can afford a house, negative amortization, commercial real estate, China collapsing, wars, inflation, etc. You’re buying into the echo bubble bull trap final exit pump!
We’ll get a recession and a global contraction. Everybody knows that.
As long-time readers know, I’ve been preparing for this since the end of 2021, when the US reached full employment. A recession always happens within five years after the US economy reaches full employment. 100% of the time, guaranteed. Since 1970, that recession has come within three years, every single time.
Unless, of course, your government decides it’s not in a recession, as the US did after it had two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2022. That used to be the definition of “recession,” but the US government nixed that definition of recession a few years ago.
What’s the new definition?
“A significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months…Notably, there are no fixed rules or thresholds that trigger a determination of decline.”
—The White House
So . . . under this definition, the US may never have another recession ever again! You could be waiting for an event that never happens, even if the economy collapses.
That’s very helpful for economists. At the beginning of 2022, they said a recession would come in the second half of that year. When that didn’t happen, they moved it to the first half of this year. Now, they’re targeting the first half of next year. Maybe they’ll push it to 2025.
When economists can move the goalposts at will and your government can define a recession however it wants, do you really need to fuss and worry about dates, times, or prices? Do you need to be so tactical?
Your price is not price
At what price should you worry? At what price should you get excited?
None. Prices are meaningless.
Two years ago, mid-2021, $30,000 bitcoin terrified you. People said the bear market had already started. Bitcoin finished the year 50% higher.
One year ago, just before the FTX collapse, $30,000 seemed like a pipe dream, a bull’s fantasy. YouTube told you to sell before everything falls apart. Now, you’d kill for those prices.
Six months ago, after the first big pump of 2023, $30,000 looked like the last stop before $1 million. Bitcoin would save us from Credit Suisse and the collapse of the US banking system. Within two months, the price dropped 25% lower.
Today, $30,000 seems like an opportunity to sell before the inevitable collapse to $14,000 or lower. “They’re not going to fool me again!”
Sometimes, $30,000 is just $30,000.
A trip to rekt city
Just take the market as it comes and make the best of it.
You’re already down 50% from holding your government’s currency instead of bitcoin. How much more will you risk losing while you wait for “the bull market to be confirmed?”
Also, don’t assume that you’re going to make money once that bull market comes. In 2021, bitcoin’s price went up 60% but most people ended the year down on their investment.
If you used the safe, effective strategy of dollar cost averaging—putting in fixed amounts at fixed intervals regardless of market conditions—you finished negative on the year.
In the middle of a raging bull market.
From 2018 to 2020, people stayed out of crypto because “it’s a bear market.” Bitcoin’s price went up 350% from bottom to the supposed start of the bull market.
Its price went up another 350% from the start of the “bull market” to the peak. At the very worst, you performed as well in the bear market as the bull market. More than likely, you came away 3x better than anybody who waited for the bull market to start.
Why obsess over it?
Don’t get wrapped up in the bull/bear conflict. Leave the stress and worry to others.
One day, they may discover that “bull” and “bear” markets don’t even matter.
This post is also available as a collectible NFT on Mirror.