The price of Dogecoin (DOGE), the ultimate memecoin and the personification of everything “real” investors hate about crypto, went up 118% this week. On cue, crypto bros hollered “the bull market’s back!” while crypto critics rolled their eyes. What do you meme? Some people might shrug off the latest pump as typical crypto shenanigans, but … Continue reading Crypto is a Meme. So is Every Other Investment →

In Q3 of 2022, bitcoin outperformed most financial assets. Look at its competition from July 1 to September 30: S&P 500 (SPX) — down 6% NASDAQ (IXIC) — down 5% Russell 2000 (IWM) — down 4% 20-year US Treasuries (TLT) — down 12% Oil (WTI) — down 27% Gold — down 8% Silver — down … Continue reading The New 60/40 Portfolio: Bonds, Bitcoin, and Cash? →

If you’ve subscribed to my newsletter, Crypto is Easy, you know that I’m more tortoise, less hare. Steady persistence rather than bursts of frenetic activity. Marathons, not sprints. Most people are here to make as much money as possible as quickly as they can. What’s the next 100x altcoin? Is the bottom in? What on-chain data … Continue reading Make Way for the Crypto Tortoise →

What’s up? Interest rates. Prices. Stress. In the US, job listings just fell to pandemic lows, property values started to collapse, earnings are down across the board, and unsold goods are piling up in many stores. Elsewhere, pension funds are on the verge of insolvency and governments are on the brink of default. Plus war, … Continue reading You Will Buy Crypto at Higher Prices, But Not Today →

I must admit, I’ve enjoyed the past few months. Some people love the hype, hooplah, excitement, and expectation of quick riches that only come when the market’s zooming. I prefer quiet times like these. For the wider world, this moment is anything but quiet. The US central bank is hell-bent on making you poorer and … Continue reading Two Minutes on Crypto—October 1, 2022 →

Bitcoin’s price tumbled from $40,000 to $25,000 in one week. While that’s not an extreme drop for bitcoin, it came at a bad time, when the market had no liquidity, little new money coming in, and a ton of leverage. Some people got wiped out when LUNA and UST, two components of a widely-used financial … Continue reading Bitcoin: Unsafe at Any Price →

Ah, crypto. The playground of the bulls and bears. Which side do you fall on? Since the start of 2022, bears have dominated the conversation. They promise bitcoin’s price will drop to $30,000 or lower. 2018 all over again. Bear flag target is $21,000. Capitulation imminent. At least two more years before we go back … Continue reading My Most Bullish Scenario for Bitcoin →

Almost six months after bitcoin’s price reached its all-time high and roughly ten months after its 2021 low of $28,500, people still argue about whether crypto is in a bull or bear market. What do those terms mean for an asset whose price goes up 100-300% in bear markets and crashes 30-50% in bull markets? … Continue reading Is 2022 the End of Bitcoin’s Bull and Bear Markets? →

Did you hear about Goblin Town? Apparently, the crypto market’s in it. What’s Goblin Town? “A dark, depressing place where dreams die and anguish reigns.” https://twitter.com/majinsayan/status/1504196987717046281 Where I come from, we call that a “day job.” I get it. Since the market reached its zenith on November 8, 2021, overall trading volume has dropped every … Continue reading With the Crypto Market, Choose Your Conclusions Wisely →

Some say the Stock-to-Flow model is dead. Not me. https://twitter.com/mkhelfman/status/1474018322865868807 Even if S2F or S2Fx fail, we have lots of other models. Four-year cycles. Hash cycles. Supercycles. Expanding cycles. Shrinking cycles. All sorts of multiples, moving averages, and extrapolations. They're all great, but they also contradict each other. Peak in Spring 2022? October 2022? Sometime … Continue reading A New Data Model for Bitcoin: U2R →